Hall of Fame Case: Albert Belle- Part 1
*At this, with election results already in, I know full well that Belle was, quite undeservedly, knocked off the ballot. However, his case remains, and he should end up on the Veterans ballot some day.
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"When I sit down and try to collect my thoughts on the whole Albert Belle debate, the one thing that always comes up is this: the focus is always on what he did wrong, not what he did right."
-Rob Dibble, former Major League closer, after Albert Belle's forced retirement
Albert Belle, statistically, is easily a Hall-of-Famer.
That's right. Not could have been. Not barely. Not squeaks by as. Not even simply deserves to be.
Easily.
A lot of people, people I respect, have said there simply wasn't enough to Belle's career, basing their opinions on his 381 career home runs--119 away from the milestone of 500--, his 1,726 career hits--1,274 away from the milestone of 3,000--and the fact that he played only 10 seasons as a regular.
In other words, those people feel his career was too short.
Based on previously inducted Hall-of-Famers, they'd be wrong.
Hank Greenberg
- 9 seasons with at least 400 at bats
- 1,628 career hits
- 331 career home runs
- Inducted: 1956
Hack Wilson
- 6 seasons with at least 400 at bats
- 1,461 career hits
- 244 career home runs
- Inducted: 1979
Ralph Kiner
- 9 seasons with at least 400 at bats
- 1,451 career hits
- 369 career home runs
- Inducted: 1975
There are more I could have shown, but these power-hitting marvels were the best of the bunch (Yes, these are legitimate Hall-of-Famers--Greenberg is among a very select group of players--think Ruth, Gehrig, and Foxx--who have at least a .600 career slugging percentage; Wilson holds the record for the most RBI in a season--A jaw-dropping 191; and Kiner hit home runs at the third-best rate in history, just behind McGwire and Ruth. Oh, and each drove in at least 100 RBI just about every year in their careers.).
Belle's career, using the stats so often held against him, actually surpass all three.
So, no, Belle's career was not too short.
Not only was it not too short, but when put under the microscope, Belle's statistics actually surpass almost all of his '90's contemporaries, including the much vaunted McGwire.
Let's start with his basic statistical record.
Hitting Stats:
SEASON
TEAM
G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
TB
BB
SO
SB
CS
OBP
SLG
AVG 1989
Cleveland Indians
62
218
22
49
8
4
7
37
86
12
55
2
2
.269
.394
.225 1990
Cleveland Indians
9
23
1
4
0
0
1
3
7
1
6
0
0
.208
.304
.174 1991
Cleveland Indians
123
461
60
130
31
2
28
95
249
25
99
3
1
.323
.540
.282 1992
Cleveland Indians
153
585
81
152
23
1
34
112
279
52
128
8
2
.320
.477
.260 1993
Cleveland Indians
159
594
93
172
36
3
38
129
328
76
96
23
12
.370
.552
.290 1994
Cleveland Indians
106
412
90
147
35
2
36
101
294
58
71
9
6
.438
.714
.357 1995
Cleveland Indians
143
546
121
173
52
1
50
126
377
73
80
5
2
.401
.690
.317 1996
Cleveland Indians
158
602
124
187
38
3
48
148
375
99
87
11
0
.410
.623
.311 1997
Chicago White Sox
161
634
90
174
45
1
30
116
311
53
105
4
4
.332
.491
.274 1998
Chicago White Sox
163
609
113
200
48
2
49
152
399
81
84
6
4
.399
.655
.328 1999
Baltimore Orioles
161
610
108
181
36
1
37
117
330
101
82
17
3
.400
.541
.297 2000
Baltimore Orioles
141
559
71
157
37
1
23
103
265
52
68
0
5
.342
.474
.281 Career Totals1539
5853
974
1726
389
21
381
1239
3300
683
961
88
41
.369
.564
.295
Well, we can certainly see Belle hit for power and average. He hit 50 home runs in 1995, plus almost reached that total in 1996 and 1998. He also totaled some serious RBI production, hitting 100 RBI's every year from 1992-2000. He was consistent and scarily productive.
Another aspect you can see of Belle's career was his fantastic 1995 campaign, where he became the first player in Major League history to hit 50 home runs and 50 doubles in the same season.
Impressive.
Still don't think he was better than McGwire?
Very well, let's look a little more closely at Belle's numbers.
- Albert Belle is tied with Babe Ruth for third all-time in consecutive seasons of 30 home runs and 100 RBI
Yes, Babe Ruth.
According to my ESPN source, Jimmie Foxx is first with 12 and Lou Gehrig is second with 9.
Those Hall-of-Famers aside, think of what that means: 30 home runs and 100 RBI's for 8 consecutive years.
100 RBI's is an annual standard for excellance. Singles hitters rarely achieve this total, and, for that matter, such an achievement would merit serious Hall-of-Fame consideration, for it's an indication of one talented, talented clutch hitter.
It's extremely difficult for anyone other than a home run hitter to achieve, and hitting a high number of home runs--even 50--is by no means a guarantee that you'll have at least 100 RBI's. Take, for example, Alfonso Soriano's 2006 season. He hit 46 home runs, but only got 95 RBI's (Yeah, 'only'). Soriano's problem was that he hit a lot of solo homers, driving in no one other than himself.
Clearly, in order to get 100 RBI's, you're going to have to hit your homers with runners on base.
In other words, you're going to hit your homers when the pressure's on.
So, in order to get 100 RBI's, you're going to have to be able to hit in the clutch.
If you think Belle needed a nickname, don't call him Albert "Joey" Belle, but rather, Albert "Clutch" Belle (Actually, you're free to use something other than 'clutch'--or 'Joey'--if you have a better idea).
For emphasis: Belle had 9 consecutive years with at least 100 RBI's, 8 of which (The first 8) had him hitting at least 30 home runs, as well.
Let's take a look at those 30 home runs.
30 home runs in a season is a good total, unfortunately overshadowed by the totals put up by McGwire, Bonds, and Sosa (Looking at those totals, it's easy to forget that hitting 40 home runs means you had an awesome year).
Sure, Belle hit at least 30 home runs those 8 years. But Belle rarely stayed at 30. He often blew by that total.
Just like Foxx, Gehrig, and Ruth.
Belle hit at least 50 home runs once, at least 40 thrice, and at least 35 home runs 6 times. Heck, he only stopped at 30 once.
You can also look at 30 home runs and 100 RBI's as an indication of a Hall-of-Fame caliber year.
If so, Belle had 8 consecutive Hall-of-Fame caliber years.
Let's go back to the names. We only have mention of Foxx, Gehrig, Ruth, and Belle (A quick look at the updated statistical record shows that Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez have tied Lou Gehrig on that list, and Barry Bonds is the new leader at 13. Considering how they're known today, no surprise there...). In other words, Belle has left quite a few star players in the dust: Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Frank Robinson, Ted Williams, Mike Schmidt, Ken Griffey, Jr., Reggie Jackson...
And yes, McGwire.
Wow.
*Yes, now it's fourth. But it's no less impressive...
- Albert Belle led a power-crazy 1990's in RBI's with 1,099, according to Sports Illustrated: The Baseball Book
This only serves to further cement Belle's clutch hitting. McGwire may have led the '90's with home runs, and home runs may have been hit at a higher clip than any other time in Major League history, but, in the end, it was Belle who led in RBI's.
Oh, and I also checked the RBI leader totals of previous decades since the 1920's (i.e. when RBI's were officially compiled). Only three times has anyone produced a higher RBI total in a previous decade--the '20's, the '30's, and the '60's--and those guys were named Ruth, Foxx, and Aaron.
Once again, Belle finds himself in select company.
- Albert Belle led the league in extra-base hits three times, just like Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, and Ty Cobb, according to the All-Century Team book
Belle just can't stop placing himself in exclusive company with elite Hall-of-Famers, can he? He also, it seems, can't avoid Hall-of-Famer Jimmie Foxx.
Now, let's take a look at extra-base hits. As the name implies, extra-base hits are hits that advanced past first base.
Given that you have to put a charge in the ball (Most of the time; you could theoretically run one out) in order to record an extra-base hit, extra-base hits should be a good indication of power.
We've already looked at how Belle tied with those Grade-A Hall-of-Famers, but how does he compare with the great power hitters of his time?
According to Baseball-Reference.com:
Mark McGwire- Led league in extra-base hits once
Sammy Sosa- Led league in extra-base hits once
Jose Canseco- Led league in extra-base hits once
Juan Gonzalez- Never led league in extra-base hits
Frank Thomas- Led league in extra-base hits twice
Ken Griffey, Jr.- Led league in extra-base hits twice
Jeff Bagwell- Led league in extra-base hits once
Fred McGriff- Never led league in extra-base hits
Rafael Palmeiro- Never led league in extra-base hits
Barry Bonds- Led league in extra-base hits thrice
Of those guys, only Barry Bonds matched his numbers (Because of 2001), and only Ken Griffey, Jr. and Frank Thomas led the league twice. Everyone else either led the league once or none at all, and Belle even beat all suspected steroid users except Bonds, who'd been a Hall-of-Famer prior to steroids.
Belle: the best hitter of the '90's? The case is getting stronger...
- Albert Belle was a complete hitter in both power and average, hitting almost identical totals of doubles and home runs with a career batting average of .295
I've kind of touched on this previously, but I'm really going to hammer the point home now.
There are particular tendencies one can observe in power hitters, and they come out almost unanimously across the board. Check out these numbers:
Mark McGwire
-Career HR's: 583
-Career Doubles: 252
-Career Batting Average: .263
-Career Strikeouts: 1,596
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 10
Reggie Jackson
-Career HR's: 563
-Career Doubles: 463
-Career Batting Average: .262
-Career Strikeouts: 2,597
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 18
Sammy Sosa
-Career HR's: 588
-Career Doubles: 355
-Career Batting Average: .274
-Career Strikeouts: 2,194
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 12
Harmon Killebrew
-Career HR's: 573
-Career Doubles: 290
-Career Batting Average: .256
-Career Strikeouts: 1,699
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 7
Mike Schmidt
-Career HR's: 548
-Career Doubles: 408
-Career Batting Average: .267
-Career Strikeouts: 1,883
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 12
Willie McCovey
-Career HR's: 521
-Career Doubles: 353
-Career Batting Average: .270
-Career Strikeouts: 1,550
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 5
In comparison:
Albert Belle
-Career HR's: 381
-Career Doubles: 389
-Career Batting Average: .295
-Career Strikeouts: 961
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 2
So of those gifted power hitters, Belle tops them all in every category but home runs.
Let's take look at those categories.
The strikeouts and batting average go hand in hand. Home run hitters often have high strikeout totals because they're swinging for the fences, and since high strikeout totals indicate poorer command of the strike zone, the batting average usually drops accordingly.
The statistics clearly demonstrated this aspect. While you might be tempted to argue that Belle would have had more strikeouts had his career not ended prematurely, it's possible you might also have missed a more telling line:
-Seasons with at least 100 strikeouts: 2
Everyone else, of course, took Belle's total and briefly experimented with exponential growth.
The impact of Belle's average seems obvious, as it clearly rolled over those players mentioned. But would it be as readily clear that his .295 average is higher than that of approximately half of all the members of the 500 Home Run Club?
It's now time to talk about those doubles and home runs.
For all the many articles and publications that I've read, I don't think I've ever seen a writer discuss the remarkable disparity that often occurs in the doubles and home run totals of a home run hitter.
Just look at those aforementioned stats. For each guy mentioned, there was at least an 100-HR difference, and often even more.
Belle? An eight double difference.
Let's take a look at this disparity historically.
The first order of business is to see how many players hit at least 350 each of home runs and doubles and achieved the same hundredth digit (i.e. if there's a 3 at the beginning of one total, it better start the next).
Hall-of-Famers are in red.
Frank Robinson
-586 career home runs
-528 career doubles
-.294 career batting average
Rafael Palmeiro
-569 career home runs
-585 career doubles
-.288 career average
Ted Williams
-521 career home runs
-525 career doubles
-.344 career batting average
Eddie Murray
-504 career home runs
-560 career doubles
-.287 career batting average
Fred McGriff
-493 career home runs
-441 career doubles
-.284 career batting average
Frank Thomas
-487 career home runs
-458 career doubles
-.305 career batting average
Willie Stargell
-475 career home runs
-423 career home runs
-.282 career batting average
Manny Ramirez
-470 career home runs
-438 career doubles
-.314 career batting average
Gary Sheffield
-455 career home runs
-418 career doubles
-.297 career batting average
Jeff Bagwell
-449 career home runs
-488 career doubles
-.297 career batting average
Billy Williams
-426 career home runs
-434 career doubles
-.290 career batting average
Carlos Delgado
-407 career home runs
-414 career doubles
-.282 career batting average
Dale Murphy
-398 career home runs
-350 career doubles
-.265 career batting average
Johnny Bench
-389 career home runs
-381 career doubles
-.267 career batting average
Jim Rice
-382 career home runs
-373 career doubles
-.298 career batting average
Albert Belle
-381 career home runs
-389 career doubles
-.295 career batting average
Joe DiMaggio
-361 career home runs
-381 career doubles
-.325 career batting average
Johnny Mize
-359 career home runs
-367 career doubles
-.312 career batting average
Chipper Jones
-357 career home runs
-383 career doubles
-.304 career home runs
Jim Edmonds
-350 career home runs
-380 career doubles
-.289 career batting average
Look at all those great hitters. Statistically, in my opinion, those players are all Hall-of-Famers (Though you may disagree on a few).
After looking at all those names, you may be wondering why this statistic is important. After all, there may have been a name mentioned above that you don't think is a Hall-of-Famer.
Take a look at those career batting averages. This may seem irrelevant, but it's actually quite important.
Of those career batting averages, none sunk lower than Dale Murphy's .265. In fact, most were near or over .300.
The truth of the matter is, examining the disparity (or parity) of home run and double totals is one way to find a great hitter. It takes a good hitter to routinely translate natural power into home runs, but it takes a truly great hitter to balance out what doesn't go over the fence.
That's not to say all players not mentioned above are not great hitters or unworthy of the Hall (A player doesn't have to hit home runs to be truly great- think Ichiro). You'll notice Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and Willie Mays didn't make the list above, as each outpaced themselves in home runs.
Then again, it's Ted Williams who's considered the greatest hitter who ever lived, and he has the best home runs to doubles ratio with 521 to 525.
Fancy that.
Let's further condense the list above, looking for guys with up to a difference of 10 in their totals.
Ted Williams
-521 career home runs
-525 career doubles
-.344 career batting average
Billy Williams
-426 career home runs
-434 career doubles
-.290 career batting average
Carlos Delgado
-407 career home runs
-414 career doubles
-.282 career batting average
Johnny Bench
-389 career home runs
-381 career doubles
-.267 career batting average
Jim Rice
-382 career home runs
-373 career doubles
-.298 career batting average
Albert Belle
-381 career home runs
-389 career doubles
-.295 career batting average
Johnny Mize
-359 career home runs
-367 career doubles
-.312 career batting average
So we four Hall-of-Famers, two likely future Hall-of-Famers, and Albert Bell
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